Politics is never boring in America, as we know only too well. This Tuesday, there is election polling taking place in parts of the country to decide on two Governors (Kentucky and Mississippi), and there is also a Senate Race taking place (in West Virginia). And guess what, just as you think there is something or someone other than Donald Trump about to dominate the political headlines, he is again set to steal the show as he makes yet another court appearance on Monday!
| Kentucky |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Beshear | -400 | -400 | -400 |
| Daniel Cameron | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Mississippi | |||
| Tate Reeves | -1500 | -1500 | -1500 |
| Brandon Presley | +600 | +600 | +600 |
And if that’s not enough, just a year out from the Presidential Election, the specter of yet another court appearance for Donald Trump looms large as he is set to take the stand in a family fraud hearing. You simply couldn’t make this stuff up, and with Trump again in the news, he is likely to overshadow the results of all three election races on Tuesday.
All this comes against the backdrop of encouraging results in recent polling held in six key swing states that shows Trump pulling clear of Joe Biden in five of them. The opinion polls released a full 365 days before the 2024 Election, were conducted by the New York Times and Siena College. They have Trump ahead in the key states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Only Wisconsin was showing in favor of the current President.
In the latest betting to win the Republican nomination, Trump is now -800 to get the seal of approval from the GOP. No matter what is thrown at him, his approval seems to be getting stronger within his party (at the very least). His closest rivals, if you can call them that, are Nikki Haley at +600 and Ron DeSantis at +700.
In the betting to be the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden is far less certain. The current President is only -250 to be the name on the ticket, with Gavin Newsome at +250, Kamala Harris at +800, and Michelle Obama at +900.
Just a few short weeks ago, Biden was -400 to be the nominee, with Newsome at +400. Those odds are now gradually starting to get closer.
Trump’s lead in five of the six swing states doesn’t appear to have made a major impact in the latest betting odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election – just yet. He is the favorite, but only marginally at +137, with Biden at +200. In the betting to be the winning party, BetOnline is still pricing the Democrats up at -110 favorites. The Republicans are +100.
Democrat Andy Beshear (-400) is looking good to win the governorship race in Kentucky after recent surges in the opinion polls. Or is he? Don’t get sucked into thinking this is a completely done deal. Beshear may be looking good in general. But one recent poll only had him two points ahead. He was even money in the summer but then surged ahead to be around -600. He is now back out at -400.
His main success of late is managing to push through the Kentucky gambling bill, legalizing betting from September 7th. Beshear has been riding high in the recent weeks thanks to this, and it still looks like his election to lose. But it would take a brave punter to back him at this late stage at -400.
Political betting opportunities could be there for Daniel Cameron (+250) backers to exploit. But we feel it could be too close to call and would therefore go with a winning margin of under 4.5% for Beshear for our betting pick.
So, it’s looking like a win for the Democrats in Kentucky, but what about Mississippi? In this election race, the polls are clearly showing in favor of the 65th Governor of Mississippi, Tate Reeves, who is -1500 to continue in the role he has held since 2020.
Tate Reeves looks too short at -1500. Back in 2019, Trump endorsed Reeves at a rally in Tupelo. This time around, Trump isn’t in town. But he has released a video endorsing the incumbent.
Tate Reeves should win, but he needs to guard against complacency. A video endorsement from Trump is great for him, and he seems to be using it to boost his campaign. But it may not have escaped the notice of many floating voters that the previous President always seems too busy dealing with outside issues, rather than focusing on politics.
The fact that Mississippi is a red state and Reeves still needs to use Trump as his message to win, says he hasn’t convinced voters. But as a safe Republican state, he looks good to still win. For our pick, we are going for Reeves to win, but with a margin of under 6.5% at -120.
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