Week 7 starts on Thursday Night Football with an intriguing matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The kick-off at Mercedes-Benz Superdome is scheduled for 8:15 PM ET. New Orleans (3-3) will be looking for a much-needed victory here after losing to CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans in Week 6. As for Jacksonville (4-2), they’ve won three in a row and just beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. However, Trevor Lawrence did sustain a knee injury. More on that below. Keep reading for the Jaguars vs Saints picks.
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Despite having the worst record, the Saints are the favorite here at -160. The Jags come back at +140. New Orleans is also laying three points on the spread. The total in points is set at 39. Recent meetings are likely part of the reason the sportsbooks are riding the Saints. They’ve won four in a row against Jacksonville and covered in all four of those games, too.
After finally making the playoffs last season, the Jaguars have kept it rolling in 2023 behind Trevor Lawrence. The quarterback is putting together a nice campaign, completing 67.1% of his passes for 1,439 yards and seven touchdowns against three interceptions. He’s also done some damage with his legs, rushing for 4.4 yards per carry. Lawrence had an efficient game against the Colts, completing 20 of 30 passes for 181 yards, two TDs, and one pick.
Out wide, Evan Engram was the most productive weapon, reeling in seven catches for 41 yards. Christian Kirk also had three receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown. A massive second quarter proved to be the difference-maker here, with Jacksonville scoring 21 points. In the process, they’ve now won nine straight games at home. Dominant.
Indianapolis was actually a lot more lethal offensively with more than 100 total yards but they couldn’t capitalize enough. The real concern for the Jags heading into TNF is Lawrence’s health. He did suffer a knee injury and although he’s reportedly feeling good, the QB was a non-participant on Monday. With a quick turnaround for Week 7, it remains to be seen if he’ll suit up. If not, it’ll be CJ Beathard under center.
The first thing that comes to mind when you look at this Saints team is just how solid their defense is, ranking top-10 in every single notable category. I mean, the unit is only allowing 16 points per game. However, the offense isn’t exactly in the same boat. New Orleans is 24th in points and 21st in total yards. There’s just not a lot of efficiency.
That was again the problem on Sunday, putting up a mere 13 points against Houston. Derek Carr completed 32 of 50 passes for 353 yards including a touchdown and interception. Not bad numbers by any means, but they were just 6 for 15 on third downs, despite having 430 total yards in the game. Chris Olave, Taysom Hill, and Alvin Kamara all had seven catches apiece, while Michael Thomas also had five.
The problem was New Orleans didn’t make the most of their scoring opportunities. Sure, the Texans defense deserves credit for some defensive stops, but the reality is the Saints failed to get it done in good field position. That’s now just one win in their last four games while scoring fewer than 20 points in all but one contest in 2023. The 34-0 win in Week 5 over the Patriots was a one-off it appears. If Lawrence can’t play Thursday, there is no reason NOLA shouldn’t make it five wins in a row against Jacksonville.
I think Lawrence’s status is extremely important. But since he has minimal days to recover, I’d guess he won’t play. If that does happen, the Saints should take this one. If he does take the field, take Jacksonville, though.
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