Two teams trending in opposite directions will meet in AFC action on Sunday as the surging Houston Texans visit the struggling Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The kick-off is scheduled for 1 PM ET. Houston is hot at the moment, winning two in a row. They just beat up the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ll get more into that below. Atlanta meanwhile just lost in Week 4 in London to Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re looking to end a two-game skid here. Keep reading for the Texans vs Falcons picks.
Before we get into the odds, preview, and prediction, check out our NFL betting odds and Super Bowl odds for 2024.
Although the Texans are the hotter team, the Falcons sit at the home favorite with moneyline odds of -132. Houston comes back at +112. As for the spread, Atlanta is laying a mere 1.5 points. This is expected to be a close one. The total in points is set at 41.5. This is only the second meeting between these two teams since 2019, and the Texans won that last one, 53-32.
CJ Stroud and the Texans didn’t get off to the best start, losing their first two games to the Ravens and Colts, respectively. But since then, they’ve really picked up their act, notching back-to-back victories. Week 3 was a 37-17 drubbing of a solid Jags team before wiping the floor with the Steelers last Sunday. That was even more impressive, considering how stout Pittsburgh’s defense is.
Stroud had a respectable game, completing 16 of 30 passes for 306 yards and two passing touchdowns, showcasing just why the Texans drafted him with their top pick. The former Ohio State standout showed poise in the pocket and linked up with wideout Nico Collins seven times for 168 yards. Collins also had two touchdowns. While Houston did also do some damage on the ground, the clear strength was the passing game.
DeMeco Ryans’ squad had 312 passing yards to just 111 for the Black and Gold. The Texans defense really locked it down, especially downfield. In fact, they’re allowing just 19.8 points per game, which ranks 11th in the NFL. The most important thing Sunday will be finding a way to limit rookie sensation Bijan Robinson, who is a budding superstar. He’s the player who can make the difference in this Week 5 matchup.
The NFC South is truly wide open. Yes, the Buccaneers are rolling so far, but the Falcons and Saints have 2-2 records in second place. Although it’s still very early in the campaign, Atlanta has every opportunity to win this division. Winning their first two contests was a good start, but losing the last two was far from ideal. Perhaps the most concerning part is that the Falcons scored just 13 points combined in Weeks 3 and 4.
Desmond Ridder is clearly not it. Well, at least not yet. The quarterback has completed just 62.2% of his passes for 744 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. He’s also fumbled the ball three times and been sacked 16 times. The latter isn’t really his fault, but more so the offensive line. That being said, he needs to take much better care of the football and must be a lot smarter with his decisions. Most notably, Drake London has just 11 catches. He’s easily this team’s best receiver and, for one reason or another, isn’t getting targeted much.
In the loss to the Jaguars, Ridder threw two interceptions and also had a fumble. London only reeled in three catches, and overall, the offense was dismal. On a more positive note, Bijan Robinson had another big day. Not only did he rush for 105 yards on 14 carries, but Robinson also had five receptions for 32 yards. He’s clearly the go-to guy for Arthur Smith. Expect him to have a big workload again in Week 5. We’ll see if it can help Atlanta grab a win.
It’s really hard to back the Falcons with Ridder under center. Stroud, meanwhile, is thriving and I don’t see any reason that won’t continue Sunday. Plus, Houston has some important players returning on the offensive line. I’m taking the Texan’s moneyline with the utmost confidence. Huge value.
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