Week 3 brings a classic AFC rivalry as the New England Patriots head to the Big Apple to face the Aaron Rodgers-less New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. The kick-off is scheduled for 1 PM ET. The Pats are still looking for their first win, losing to the Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins so far. Not a great start for Bill Belichick and Co. As for the Jets, they won their season opener despite losing Aaron Rodgers to a season-ending Achilles injury, beating the Buffalo Bills in overtime. But, Week 2 ended up being a blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Keep reading for the Patriots vs Jets picks.
Before we get into the odds, preview, and prediction, check out our NFL betting odds and Super Bowl odds for 2024.
The Patriots do head in as a clear favorite, sitting at -148 odds on the moneyline for an implied win probability of 59.68%. The Jets come back at +130. That’s a 43% chance of taking this game. New England is also laying 2.5 points on the spread. The total is set at a relatively low 36.5. Both teams haven’t really done much offensively yet, so it stands to reason.
Regarding head-to-head, the Pats are riding a 14-game winning streak against the Jets from 2016. It’s a long time for NY to win in this AFC East showdown.
New England isn’t used to failure, but since Tom Brady left town, there hasn’t been a lot of success. They’ve made the playoffs once in the last three seasons and aren’t expected to be a contender in 2023. And while the Pats put up a respectable fight in Week 1 against the Eagles in a 25-20 loss, it was a much different story last Sunday versus Miami.
The Patriots fell 24-17 and were down and out for most of the game until nearly completing the comeback in the fourth quarter when they scored 14 points. Mac Jones finished 31 of 42 for 231 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Now, great, but not awful. The quarterback is throwing the football a lot more than last season, though, which is a good sign. He just needs to complete more of his passes. The Dolphins completely overmatched New England on the ground, with 148 rushing yards to just 88 for Belichick’s squad.
New England also had 200 passing yards compared to 244 for Tua Tagovailoa and his offense. Scoring points in clearly an issue for the Pats, putting up just 18.5 per game. That ranks 22nd in the league. They do rank seventh in passing yards but just 27th in rushing yards. Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott need to get it going because it will be tough to come out of this division without a productive run game. The Patriots won’t have it easy Sunday against a strong Jets defense, but history clearly says they should be confident about making it 15 wins in 15, especially since Rodgers is on the shelf.
It’s that New York luck. When Rodgers went down with a torn Achilles, Gang Green supporters were absolutely devastated and weren’t exactly happy that Zach Wilson is now their QB1 again. The organization could still be looking to find a QB to replace Rodgers, but it does appear Robert Saleh is content with Wilson. Fans won’t love that. He was right in the opener but absolutely unraveled vs. Dallas last Sunday.
The former first-round pick threw three picks in his first 2023 start and completed just 12 of 27 passes for a mere 170 yards. It’s a truly awful line for the young signal-caller. The Dallas defense also stifled him, sacking Wilson three times. The only positive is that he ran for 36 yards on five carries. Overall, this was just a brutal performance from New York. Only one receiver had more than two catches, and the backfield barely got involved. Breece Hall had only four catches and openly voiced displeasure at his lack of usage.
Defensively, the Jets were picked apart by Dak Prescott, who completed 31 of his 38 passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns. New York had 215 total yards to 382 for America’s Team. It was a really bad day for Gang Green. Garrett Wilson has to get involved more in Week 3, and Wilson must be more careful with the football. Also, Hall is a stud and deserves to have the football in his hands. Let’s see if that happens after complaining.
It’s really hard to back Wilson. He’s so inconsistent and just played extremely poorly. And the Pats have the advantage in this matchup. I’ll go with the New England moneyline here.
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