Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season officially begins on Thursday as the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions kick off the campaign. On Sunday, however, is when most of the games will be, including a big AFC North matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns. This contest is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. Cincy lost two and tied once in preseason, with quarterback Joe Burrow missing all three games with an injury. It’s still unknown if he’ll suit up on Sunday. As for Cleveland, they won one of their four preseason outings. Continue reading for the Bengals vs Browns prediction.
Before we get into the odds, preview, and prediction, check out our NFL betting odds and Super Bowl odds for 2024.
By no surprise, the Bengals are the -137 favorite for an implied win probability of 57.81%. The Browns come back at +117 and have a 46.08% chance of coming out victorious. The spread is rather small though, given the uncertainty around Burrow, with Cincinnati laying just 2.5 points. The total is set at 47, with the under being hit in three straight games. As for recent meetings, Cleveland has won five of the last six against Cincy. The season series in 2022 was split down the middle.
The last two seasons have been impressive for the Bengals, making the Super Bowl in 2021 and losing in the AFC Championship last year. But there is no question Cincinnati is ready to get over that hump. In 22′, Zac Taylor’s group went 12-4 en route to the AFC North title, ranking top-10 in points scored and fewest points allowed. On both sides of the ball, this is a very strong team.
Burrow had another big year, completing 68.3% of his passes for 4,475 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Ja’Marr Chase, his ex-LSU teammate, was his favorite target. The wideout reeled in 87 receptions for 1,046 yards and a team-best nine touchdowns. There is no shortage of other weapons either, though. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd also did their part and will be important in the passing game again in 2023.
When it comes to the run game, the Bengals weren’t as elite, rushing for just 3.8 yards per carry. Joe Mixon had seven TDs on 814 yards rushing, while Samaje Perine ran for over four yards per carry. He’s gone now, which means rookie Chase Brown will be Mixon’s backup.
When it comes to betting trends, Cincy covered 12 of their 16 games in 2022. They were also 9-5 ATS when sitting as a minimum favorite of 2.5 points. Things could turn out to be drastically different than the Bengals hope, however, if Burrow isn’t ready to go. He’s looked good in practice this week, but Taylor has yet to make an official announcement on his availability. If he can’t go, Jake Browning will start.
The Browns made the controversial decision to give Deshaun Watson a $230 million deal last offseason to be their QB1 of the future after Baker Mayfield failed to take Cleveland to the Promised Land. Watson missed a lot of time last season due to his suspension for sexual assault allegations, but he’s now in the clear and will be available from the get-go.
Cleveland had a forgettable campaign in 22′, finishing at the bottom of the division with a 7-10 record. The offense was rather abysmal, with just 21.2 points per game while allowing 22.4 per contest. Jacoby Brissett played a lot of the season at quarterback, throwing for 2,608 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six picks. Watson meanwhile suited up for six games, throwing for seven TDs against five interceptions. It’s not great, but the hope is he can find his best again after a full camp and no off-field drama.
The run game was clearly the strong suit for Kevin Stefanski, with Nick Chubb starring. He ran for 5.1 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns in what was another massive campaign. With no legitimate backup, Chubb will be in for another huge workload in 2023. When it comes to the passing game, Amari Cooper had 78 catches for 1,160 yards and nine touchdowns.
While the Browns may not be at the level of the Bengals in recent years, they evidently play well against their Ohio rivals, going 5-1 in the last six meetings. Plus, being at home should help, too. Again, Burrow’s status changes things here. But even if he does play, Cleveland has a chance if Watson can find a rhythm and Chubb can dominate on the ground.
If Burrow doesn’t feature, definitely take the Browns. However, I have a strong feeling he’ll be ready to roll, and for that reason, I have to take Cincinnati to roll into Cleveland and move to 1-0 to begin the season.
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