It’s finally here. With the preseason all wrapped up, Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is officially upon us, with the Super Bowl champ Kansas City Chiefs kicking things off on Thursday, September 7th, at Arrowhead Stadium against a young and talented Detroit Lions team that is expected to make some noise this year. This game is scheduled for 8:20 PM ET. KC went 2-1 in preseason, but as expected, the starters didn’t play much. As for Detroit, they posted a 2-1 record as well. Below, find the Lions vs Chiefs picks.
Before we get into the odds, preview, and prediction, check out our NFL betting odds and Super Bowl odds for 2024.
The Chiefs are the favorite with -220 odds. The Lions come back at +190. The spread isn’t too huge, though, with KC laying five points. They were actually just 8-9-0 ATS in 2022. Detroit, meanwhile, was solid ATS, going 11-6-0. The total in points sits at 53.
These two teams don’t meet too often, last facing off in 2019. The Chiefs have won two in a row against the Lions and lead the all-time series 9-5-0.
The days of Detroit being awful appear to be over. The Lions just barely missed out on the playoffs last year, going 9-8, with Jared Goff saving his NFL career in Motown. The fact that Detroit is getting the chance to play in Primetime just shows the league isn’t taking them for granted anymore.
While their defense wasn’t phenomenal a year ago, Dan Campbell’s offense was one of the best in the league. They scored 26.6 points per game, which ranked fifth in the NFL. Goff started all 17 games, completing 65% of his passes for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. This is the definition of a bounce-back year for Goff, who has no shortage of weapons out wide.
Amon-Ra St. Brown led the way with 106 catches for 1,161 yards and six TDs, proving to be Goff’s most reliable target throughout the campaign. Expect St. Brown to be very busy on Thursday as he looks to torch the Chiefs secondary. Josh Reynolds and new addition Marvin Jones Jr. will be hoping to do some damage all year, too, while TJ Hockenson is also a stud at TE.
When it comes to the run game, Detroit went out and signed David Montgomery in free agency to be their new first-string running back, but the franchise also drafted Alabama standout Jahmyr Gibbs. They should combine to form a nice one-two punch in the Lions backfield. Given his versatile skill set from his days in Tuscaloosa, Gibbs is also expected to be a part of the passing game.
When you have Patrick Mahomes, anything is possible. The Chiefs QB lost Tyreek Hill last offseason but then proceeded to lead Kansas City to another Super Bowl win despite a lack of legitimate talent out wide other than Travis Kelce. Speaking of Kelce, he suffered a minor knee injury at practice Tuesday and could be sidelined for TNF. That would change things in a big way for Andy Reid and Co.
The other cloud hanging over the Chiefs is the absence of star tackle Chris Jones, who is holding out due to a contract dispute. At this point, it’s unknown when he could return. When it comes to Kansas City’s 2022 campaign, they were top of the league in points per game with 29-2 en route to a 14-3 record, beating the Philadelphia Eagles in the Super Bowl. Defensively, KC ranked 16th in points allowed (21.7).
Mahomes was truly spectacular en route to NFL MVP. He threw for a mind-boggling 5,250 yards to go along with 41 touchdowns and 12 picks. He also completed 67.1% of his passes. Efficiency at its finest. Kelce was his most potent weapon, reeling in 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. If he’s unable to go on Thursday, it will make things more difficult for the Chiefs when it comes to producing offense.
Sky Moore will be seeking a bigger role in the offense, and so will Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Kadarius Toney meanwhile is questionable for Week 1 but did just return to practice Tuesday after recovering from an injury. Despite some potential absences, home advantage will undoubtedly help the Chiefs, who went 7-1 in front of their fans in 22′.
This should be an entertaining one. I like what the Lions are building, and I expect them to make the playoffs this season. However, rolling into Arrowhead and beating the defending champs is hard to do, and it won’t happen. Take the Chiefs’ moneyline. They should also cover, but it won’t be a blowout.
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