The Champions League officially returns as of Tuesday with the beginning of matchday one. While there are a plethora of intriguing games on the schedule, perhaps one of the best ones will be PSG vs Borussia Dortmund in Group F action. The kick-off is scheduled for 3 PM ET at Parc des Princes in the French capital. Paris is coming off a shocking 3-2 defeat to Nice in Ligue 1 play and badly needs a result here. BVB, on the other hand, just smashed Freiburg 4-2, with their attack really thriving. Continue reading for the PSG vs Dortmund picks.
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PSG is a clear favorite here with moneyline odds as steep as -133 for an implied win probability of 57.08%. Dortmund comes back at +333 and has a mere 23.09% of leaving Paris with three points on Tuesday. As for recent meetings, the two sides have met a pair of times in the competition back in 2019/20, both snatching a win. But, it was PSG who moved onto the quarterfinals, besting the Germans on aggregate.
There’s been nothing but turmoil in Paris in recent months. Lionel Messi left the club, Neymar forced his way out as well, and Kylian Mbappe was keen on departing, too. But even though he hasn’t signed a new deal, the Frenchman is firing on all cylinders this term as usual, scoring seven times in four league outings. Not surprising.
PSG did slip up in a big way on Friday, however, losing 3-2 to Nice, which dropped them back to fifth in the table. Luis Enrique actually praised his squad for how they played despite the disappointing result, but you’d have to imagine these players are ready to respond in the Champions League on Tuesday.
This competition has not been kind to the Parisiens. With Mbappe, Neymar, and Messi, they failed to win a UCL title, crashing out at the Round of 16 stage in back-to-back years. It’s hard to imagine them going all the way this term without Neymar and Messi, especially considering this group they will need to get through.
Nonetheless, Mbappe is always capable of producing numerous moments of brilliance and will surely be a factor throughout the group stages. He’s scored 34 Champions League goals in his career and just netted a brace in Friday’s defeat. The Dortmund backline will have their hands full with the talented forward. Also, Manuel Ugarte and Marquinhos are expected to return to the starting XI, which provides PSG with a serious boost.
It hasn’t been the prettiest start to the Bundesliga campaign for Borussia Dortmund, currently occupying seventh in the table with two wins and two draws. It is not awful by any means, but BVB will expect more out of themselves after settling for one point apiece against Bochum and the newly promoted Heidenheim. That being said, Edin Terzic’s group impressed heavily over the weekend, having their way with Freiburg.
The unlikely hero was Mats Hummels, who isn’t exactly known as a goal-scorer. He bagged a brace, while Donyell Malen and Marco Reus both hit the back of the net as well. The attack looked tremendous and that’ll need to continue on Tuesday if a positive result is going to be found at the Parc des Princes.
Dortmund actually had a really solid group stage campaign in 2021-22, losing only one of their six matches and that was to eventual winners, Manchester City. The Black and Yellows ultimately fell to Chelsea in the Round of 16 across two legs. When it comes to facing French opposition in the Champions League, they’ve won eight and tasted defeat six times. That trend means it’s either three points or nothing on matchday one. Only time will tell.
From a health standpoint, Dortmund isn’t dealing with any major injuries. Thomas Meunier and Mateu Morey are still out with knee problems, while Julien Duranville isn’t fit enough. Giovanni Reyna is hurt as well.
Paris just lost at home and will be motivated to produce the goods in front of their fans after such a lifeless showing. I’ll ride the PSG moneyline against Dortmund. It could be close, but the hosts will prevail.
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