We have some mid-week action in the MLS on Wednesday evening as title-holders LAFC play host to the Houston Dynamo in an all-Western Conference clash. The kick-off is scheduled for 10:30 PM ET at BMO Stadium in California. These two sides actually just met over the weekend as well down in Texas, with Houston thrashing the Black and Gold 4-0 on home soil. That puts them just five points back of Los Angeles in the standings at the moment. Continue reading for the LAFC vs Houston Dynamo prediction.
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Despite the lopsided result a few days ago, LAFC is a massive favorite here with -243 odds for an implied win probability of 70.85%. Houston is given a mere 13.33% chance of winning their second game in a row against the reigning champions, with steep odds of +650. Overall in 100 all-time MLS meetings, Los Angeles has the edge with five wins, two defeats, and three draws. They’re also unbeaten at home this term.
The holders have played pretty well in 2023 so far. They own a 7-2-5 record and Saturday was only their second defeat of the campaign. But, it’s absolutely crucial that Steve Cherundolo’s men bounce back with a positive result on Wednesday, especially at BMO Stadium. That atmosphere almost always plays in their favor.
Scoring goals are typically no problem for LAFC, netting 23 times in 14 outings. Not phenomenal, but there is no shortage of players who can find the back of the net, including Carlos Vela and Denis Bouanga. However, the Black and Gold were toothless over the weekend. Despite having 13 shots, just three hit the target. The Houston backline did a solid job of containing the LA attack.
Bouanga has 10 goals already this season while Vela has hit the back of the net four times. But, the side is actually goalless across their last two appearances, also settling for a scoreless stalemate last Wednesday against Atlanta United. The Dynamo just proved they’re more than capable of giving LAFC a run for their money, therefore the hosts must produce Wednesday. That also comes down to locking down at the back. It’s rare for the defense to concede four times. That should’ve been a wake-up call.
The Dynamo have shined at times this year then in other moments, they’ve struggled. That’s exactly why Houston is sitting in seventh spot in the Western Conference. Because of inconsistency. For example, before smashing LAFC, El Naranja lost 3-0 to first-place St. Louis City SC and 6-2 to the Vancouver Whitecaps. It’s like a different team is showing up on a weekly basis.
On Saturday, four different players got on the scoresheet. Nelson Quinones got things started before Corey Baird, Amine Bassi, and Franco Escobar all produced the goods as well. While the Dynamo only controlled 42% of the ball, they certainly made the most of their five shots on target.
That victory should give them a boatload of confidence heading into LA and it will be a good test to see if Houston can build off their last win. Unfortunately, though, Ben Olsen’s squad is absolutely atrocious on the road, going 0-6-2. In other words, the Dynamo have yet to collect a single victory away from Shell Energy Stadium this term.
Also, Houston tends to be rather poor in front of goal, scoring only 19 times in 16 matches. In other words, barely one per game. On a more positive note, they’ve only allowed 21, which is actually respectable. Bassi is their most reliable player up top, scoring seven times in 13 outings. He’s actually netted in back-to-back fixtures, too.
Although Houston looked rather dominant a few days back, I simply don’t believe you’ll see a result like that again. After all, we’re talking about the MLS champs who are still a very strong side and can make the necessary adjustments. Expect LAFC to respond and notch a statement victory at BMO Stadium while extending their unbeaten run at home in the process.
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