After what occurred at Kansas, NASCAR heads East again to Bristol, Tennessee, for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. As the final race of the first segment of the playoff chase approaches, the positioning for the “Round of 12” concludes. Can NASCAR Bristol Picks back Busch and get a surprise or two in?
Below are the top 16 drivers in our NASCAR Vegas online betting odds for Saturday night’s race in Bristol at Bristol Motor Speedway This leads to some normalized trends as the NASCAR Bristol picks correlate to Kansas somewhat. It would appear that Joe Gibbs Racing, the Fords, and a Chevy or two could be in the mix this weekend.
| NASCAR 2022 Bristol Numbers |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +600 | +650 |
| Chase Elliott | +650 | +700 |
| Kyle Larson | +700 | +750 |
| Christopher Bell | +750 | +800 |
| Kevin Harvick | +800 | +800 |
| Kyle Busch | +800 | +900 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1000 | +1000 |
| Joey Logano | +1100 | +1200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1500 | +1600 |
| Ross Chastain | +1600 | +1600 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1600 | +1600 |
| William Byron | +1800 | +1600 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2000 | +1800 |
| Alex Bowman | +2500 | +2800 |
| Chase Briscoe | +3000 | +2800 |
| Daniel Suarez | +3500 | +3300 |
Lamenting what happened at Kansas helps us stare at Bristol more intently. Now, the “NASCAR Playoff Chase” becomes real. Kevin Harvick’s DNF again keeps him well behind in the basement of the playoff race, 35 points behind 12th. This is it. The Stewart-Haas Ford almost has to win just to get in. There are mathematical ways, but in the NASCAR future, Harvick has dropped to +4000. That is an ominous sign.
Kansas is an intermediate track with some unusual tire wear and blowout issues with double-digit cautions on Sunday. The result was again seeing quite a few racers who ran well wind up with DNF’s or ruined days. In the Kurt Busch car, Bubba Wallace won the race. that Busch car had been very good on intermediates, and Wallace took advantage of it at +2000.
Some said the Next-Gen car would change this playoff race, and it has made this more of a war of attrition at times. A few drivers have thrived so far, like Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, while the likes of Kyle Busch and Harvick are on the outside looking in.
The key point of emphasis at VegasBetting, we suggest, is to remember the race within the race. The number of cautions at Kansas may be slightly lower than in the Spring race because of more careful driving. Also, expect drivers to be more aware of their surroundings. Now, there may be better choices for a top pick. However, for a good reason, Denny Hamlin is still a NASCAR Bristol Bets Favorite but not our top choice.
Last week was still rather good for Toyota. The Toyotas again mostly finished well but did win just not Joe Gibbs Racing. Why? As good as the Joe Gibbs cars ran early and Denny Hamlin was late in the race, they could not beat Bubba Wallace (20 to 1 long shot). Wallace held him off and Christopher Bell for his second of the season and threw a big wrench into the NASCAR Playoff Chase. Why? There is a straightforward way to advance in the playoffs.
That is correct. If a playoff racer wins any race in that segment, they automatically advance to the next round. For example, if Kyle Busch won on Saturday night, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver would move on to the “Round Of 12”. Kyle Busch could win the Bass Pro Shops Night Race as Busch had won it in 2019 with two runner-up results and was running in the top five before tire and speed issues struck last September.
Again, let us add a little more drama to the mix. Three drivers just outside the bubble are within single-digit points of advancing onward. Out of those three, Kyle Busch has the best track record. This is the race where TrackHouse Racing could be most hurt by those chasing them. The younger Busch, fresh off his Richard Childress Racing announcement for 2023, has little to lose now.
The one unexpected aspect of the playoff chase so far is that Toyota has run very well in races when it counts. With all this said, the NASCAR Bristol Bets believes Kyle Busch has a very good shot at winning.
Again, here are more Bristol news and notes for Kansas this Saturday night. The weather could change, but dry conditions and clear skies are likely with cooling temperatures. Even with cooler temperatures, the short track (0.533 miles with high bank turns) will be warm from daytime numbers around 85 degrees. Also, there is a slight correlation between Kansas and, again, those familiar Toyota, Ford, and Hendrick cars in contention.
Drivers like Chase Briscoe are not as a long shot at winning as one thinks. Again, that race last year where Briscoe and Reddick battled to the line as he spun Reddick out, going for the lead. Keep that one in your memory banks, as they say. Furthermore, do not forget Reddick, the RCR driver on the bubble for the “Round Of 12”.
Joey Logano keeps anchoring the Ford hopes, and he is 40 points up on the bubble at this point. It will not surprise anyone if he nabs another solid result. He did win a race or two here once upon a time. Tyler Reddick is a driver to take a NASCAR Bristol Bet on.
What about some longer shots? Last week, we had the right idea but the wrong 23XI car. Bubba Wallace could thrive again in the Kurt Busch car. However, our eye is on Chase Briscoe at 28 to 1 and even Erik Jones at +5000. These drivers have contended at the front of the short track before.
Take Kyle Busch to fend off Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin to win. That is our NASCAR Bristol Bets.
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