It’s match three of the series between St Louis Blues and the Colorado Avalanche, and here we bring you our free betting picks on what promises to be a pivotal Saturday night in the series.
For the first time in what seems like an eternity, the Colorado Avalanche is under a bit of pressure. Thursday night’s 4-1 home defeat wasn’t in the script, and now the two teams head to Missouri with the series all square and the favorites under pressure.
With the series all square after two games, the series betting now stands at:-
The Colorado Avalanche started the season as the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. A quick look at the latest 2022 Stanley Cup Betting Odds shows that nothing has changed there. In fact, it has changed, but only that the odds of Jared Bednar’s team winning their third Stanley Cup keep on getting shorter.
| 2022 Stanley Cup Winner Betting |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Avalanche | +200 | +190 |
| Florida Panthers | +600 | +650 |
| Calgary Flames | +600 | +700 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | +650 | +650 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +450 | +400 |
| Edmonton Oilers | +1100 | +1200 |
| New York Rangers | +1200 | +1200 |
| St. Louis Blues | +2500 | +1600 |
To be fair, I don’t see their odds drifting until they go behind in any series. The Top Las Vegas Sportsbooks have been behind the Avalanche since pretty much the start of the season, and with talents like Gabriel Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon in the team, it’s pretty easy to see why.
Before we look at the third match of the series in more detail, let’s take a quick look at NHL betting in general. The most common betting markets for Las Vegas NHL odds makers to mark up are the Moneyline, the Points Spread (handicap), and the Total Goals (over/under).
Moneyline – This is simply a bet on who you think will win the match. It is usually a two-way market. So in this match, it is a bet on either Colorado or St Louis.
Points Spread – In this market the team that is perceived to be inferior will get an imaginary 1.5 goals start from the sportsbook. So in this match, for the purpose of the bet, imagine St Louis is 1.5 goals up before the game starts.
The main idea of this market is to offer a more balanced market, as opposed to the Moneyline, which can be very one-sided towards the team that is the betting favorite.
Total Goals – Also known as over/under, this is a market where a goal spread is set out at the start of the match, and you have to decide if it will be over or under.
The spread is usually at 5.5. This means you decide if there will be 0-5 goals in the match or 6 goals or more goals in the fixture.
These are the three main betting markets available on all NHL matches.
Match 1 – Colorado Avalanche may have been the runaway winners of the Central Division, but the favorites to win the 2022 Stanley Cup didn’t have it all their own way in the series opener in Denver on Tuesday night.
The Blues took the lead in the 1st Period through Ryan O’Reilly. Avalanche hit back strongly in the 2nd Period to race into a 2-1 lead, and at that point, it was expected they would take command of the tie.
The Blues had other ideas though, and Jordan Kyrou equalized with just under 3 minutes of the match left.
The Avalanche did get the job done in O|T, with Josh Manson scoring the winner after 8.02.
Match 2 – If we thought Match 1 didn’t go completely to script, then the second one was a disaster for the favorites. The Avalanche didn’t completely look like their usual selves in Match 1, but I’m not sure anyone predicted a 4-1 home defeat for them in the second match.
After a goalless 1st Period, the Blues raced into a 2-0 lead in the 2nd. Then at the start of the 3rd, Gabriel Landeskog made it 2-1, and the comeback was on. It never materialized in that way though, and instead, the Blues hit two more to make it 4-1.
After back-to-back matches in Denver, the St Louis Blues will be relieved to finally get a crack at the Stanley Cup betting favorites on home ice.
Despite coming home with the upper hand, they don’t get to start as the betting favorites.
Moneyline
Points Spread
Total Goals
All three of these markets seem tricky to call. In the two games to date, the Avalanche haven’t been themselves. So do we expect a bounce-back? Or have the St Louis Blues gained the upper hand now?
In the Total Goals market, neither match has come close to seven goals, so I’m going for under there, but on the Moneyline and Points Spread, it’s going to have to be a leap of faith to back the Avalanche.
I’m going for the favorites, though. They’ve not been under this sort of pressure all season, and this is the time when the big teams strike back.
The same can be said about St Louis. They went into this series as the underdogs, with no one giving them much chance. All of a sudden they are all level, with two home games to come. How will they react to that pressure?
