The new MotoGP season is just one race old, and already there has been a surprise winner on the circuit with Enea Bastianini taking the Qatar GP, here we assess the Italian’s chances in our 2022 MotoGP Futures Picks.
There was a massive shock in the opening MotoGP race of the 2022 season when Enea Bastianini took the chequered flag at the Qatar MotoGP, beating off Brad Binder and Pol Espargaro for the maximum 25 points.
The win has completely shaken up the latest MotoGP betting odds, with Bastianini now into +750 third betting favorite with the best sportsbooks to win the 2022 World Championship. Bastianini has come from nowhere. But given his now shorter odds, the betting markets see him as a contender to win the 2022 world championship.
But can he do it? His Gresini Racing team has only been in existence for 16 years, and Qatar is the first time they have tasted victory on the MotoGP circuit. It’s a big ask for any team to take on the big boys, let alone one with no real experience to speak off in the winner’s enclosure!
As testing this season has shown though, there isn’t much between the riders this season, and it looks set to be the most competitive year for some time. The way Bastianini’s odds have shortened so drastically on the back of one result is a testament to that.
Bastianini will also be up against some formidable opponents. Spain’s Marc Marquez is looking for his seventh world title, and the up-and-coming Francesco Bagnaia will also be in the hunt for his maiden world crown.
The betting favorite after Round 1 of the 2022 season is Marc Marquez. For me, the jury is still out on Marquez. The Marquez of old I would have no hesitation in backing. But we’re yet to see if that version of Marquez still exists.
| Betting to win 2022 MotoGP World Championship |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Marc Marquez | +120 | +125 |
| Francesco Bagnaia | +300 | +350 |
| Enea Bastianini | +700 | +750 |
| Fabio Quartararo | +800 | +900 |
| Joan Mir | +1100 | +1000 |
| Jorge Martin | +1400 | +1400 |
| Alex Rins | +1400 | +1400 |
| Pol Espargaro | +1600 | +1400 |
The Spaniard is just +120 to win this season’s title and is closely followed by Italian superstar Francesco Bagnaia who is +300. Bagnaia finished the 2021 season on fire and is many pundits’ pick to win this year’s championship.
Following Bagnaia in the betting is Enea Bastianini at +750. The Italian sits just ahead of defending champion Fabio Quartararo who is at +800.
It’s then an all Spanish affair with 2020 champion Joan Mir at +1100, Jorge Martin and Alex Rins both at +1400, and Pol Espargaro at +1600.
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The main threat to Enea Bastianini and the rest of the field is Spanish multiple world champion, Marc Marquez. The 29-year-old is just +120 to win this year’s championship.
But for me, it has to be said that this is a risky bet at those odds.
Marquez is just back after two years of injuries and rehabilitation. He has yet to prove he still has that fire in his belly that won him six world titles in the past nine years.
In Qatar, his performance was more solid than spectacular. He finished a respectable fifth, and as comebacks go, it was more than adequate.
The acid test will come for Marquez when he has to force the situation. That’s when we will see if these injuries have had any effect on him mentally or physically.
Could Marquez be classed as good value at such short odds? I’m not sure he is. If he is the Marquez of old, then yes, +120 is fine. But we just don’t know that for definite yet. And with it set to be such a competitive season, there is better value out there.
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Bagnaia made a slow start to the season in Qatar. After starting in ninth place on the grid, the Italian failed to finish, and also took out teammate Jorge Martin in the process of trying to work his way up the leaderboard.
He finished 2021 with a flourish though, and this is why the top Vegas sportsbooks have Bagnaia so short. In the last six races of last season, Bagnaia won four of them and finished third in one.
His late run saw him finish runner-up in the championship and proved he has the pedigree to contest for his maiden title this year.
He will need to up his game though. With such a competitive and open season predicted, Bagnaia can’t afford too many repeat performances of the one we saw in Qatar just under two weeks ago.
With doubts over Marquez and the slow start from Bagnaia, it’s easy to see why Enea Bastianini’s odds shortened so dramatically.
But with the jury still out on the Gresini Racing rider, I’m going with what I regard as the safer option with Francesco Bagnaia to win the 2022 MotoGP World Championship.
